Saturday, July 17, 2004

Making a bet...

So I made a bet with Gary.

The bet is that in the next 10 years, we won't see a PvP Viable game that will able to hold 70k+ US subscribers for a year. PvP Viable as defined as a game like Shadowbane, but doesn't suck.

He thinks that a developer out there will embrace this niche market and spend the time and money to develope a game that the PvP community will embrace whole hog.

I disagree with his thought without any reservations. I beleive it is too niche, and unlike the Korean PvP community, the US PvP community can't even agree on what it wants.

Maybe once the MMOG community as a whole gets to the point where companies can "take a chance" on developing a niche market game. I don't think we'll see that in 10 years though.

We'll see who wins by July 17th 2014 now won't we?

EDIT: Blogger's new post creation/editing tool seems to be a might bit buggy.

EDIT EDIT: As per Joshua's comment below, clarifying that the game in question would need to be of the "RPG" type. Planetside does qualify as a PvP MMOG, but not a PvP MMORPG. Gary and I just wanted to keep the acronyms smaller where possible. =)



Blogger Spyke said...

Ah... seems to not like Firefox that much. Hope that they fix that sooner then later.

7/17/2004 4:38 PM  
Blogger Robin said...

Does it need to hold the same 70K+ subscribers for the year? Because I can't imagine any PvP-centric game that could possibly be worth playing for that long. It only takes so long to perfect your PvP technique in a game before you realize there's nothing else to do. (Then again, I would've thought that would be true of a lot of non-PvP games too, and there are still a buttload of people playing UO and EQ, so I'd be wrong!)

7/17/2004 5:38 PM  
Blogger Spyke said...

Yes, it has to hold a 70k+ subscriber base for 1 year. Basically, if any game that qualifies hits 70k+ during the next 10 years and holds it for a year (even if that year starts at the 12th month of the 10th year) Gary wins.

Your in a similar ballpark that I'm in, Robn. I don't think that it's possible for the US market to sustain a PvP Viable/Centric/whathaveyou game.

7/18/2004 1:35 PM  
Blogger Robin said...

I suspect the only way for this to happen would be for about 210k subscribers to want to play. Since it takes about 4 months to completely exhaust a new game, especially a PvP one, it could hold 70k as long as they take turns subscribing and dropping out when the game starts sucking!

7/18/2004 2:19 PM  
Blogger Spyke said...

Remember, I'm the one that thinks this CANNOT work and won't happen ever. Gary is the guy that says that a game that is designed specifically for the PvP community (as an MMORPG) can work in the US Market as stated above. Now with Gary's background in PvP (starting from way back when in UO) I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for certain things.

But for this? I plan on accepting my winnings after 10 years.

7/20/2004 9:12 AM  

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